Silver in India (MCX): ~$107/oz (adjusted from ₹/kg to $/oz)

Silver in China (SHFE): ~$104/oz

Silver in the US (COMEX): ~$94/oz

This places Indian silver at a premium of nearly $13/oz over COMEX, an extreme divergence by any historical standard. Such a spread has never been sustained in normal market conditions and cannot be explained by currency moves alone. The chart comparing MCX and COMEX premiums clearly shows a sharp vertical spike — indicating stress rather than gradual repricing. China, despite strong industrial demand, remains far closer to global parity, highlighting how isolated the Indian move really is.

What makes this development more consequential is the parallel shift in Indian silver ETFs. After spending months in discount to global spot, ETFs are now slowly moving back into premium territory. This mirrors October’s episode, when ETFs briefly turned premium following delivery issues linked to JPMorgan’s inability to deliver silver into India. The re-emergence of premiums — both in futures and ETFs — suggests that this is not just speculative froth. It points to tightening physical availability, revived retail participation, and a market structure under strain. When futures, ETFs and physical premiums align, price discovery is no longer functioning smoothly — something is clearly breaking beneath the surface.

Disclaimer:
This blog is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Views expressed are based on publicly available information and market understanding at the time of writing and are subject to change. Readers should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in markets are subject to risk.