What began as a pre-dawn strike on 28 February 2026 has now entered its 19th consecutive day, making Operation Epic Fury the most consequential military confrontation in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion. The joint US-Israeli operation, codenamed Roaring Lion by Israel, killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on Day 1, decapitated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ senior command structure, and triggered a multi-front retaliatory response from Tehran that has engulfed the entire Gulf region and beyond.

The Scale of Destruction

The numbers tell a story of unprecedented escalation. According to the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), the independent conflict monitor documented nearly 2,000 distinct events across at least 29 of Iran’s 31 provinces in just the first week. The US Central Command reported striking over 1,000 targets. The World Health Organisation identified at least 18 hospitals and health facilities hit. The Iranian Red Crescent reported over 6,668 civilian units targeted. The deadliest single incident occurred in Minab, southeastern Iran, where a strike on an elementary girls’ school killed more than 170 people.

Iran’s retaliation has been far more aggressive than any consensus estimate. Between 28 February and 4 March alone, ACLED recorded more than 90 attempted strikes by Iran against Israel, with around 20 directly hitting civilian areas. Missiles have reached Ramat Gan near Tel Aviv, killing at least two people on 18 March. The conflict has now expanded beyond Iran-Israel – the UAE’s Fujairah oil hub was struck by drones, Dubai International Airport suspended flights temporarily on 16 March, and Saudi Arabia has been intercepting incoming drones daily.

The Hormuz Chokepoint: 33 Kilometres That Changed Everything

The single most disruptive economic consequence has been the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Roughly 20 per cent of global crude oil, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas transits this narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. According to the International Energy Agency’s March 2026 Oil Market Report, tanker movements through Hormuz have plunged from approximately 20 million barrels per day to a trickle, creating what the agency described as the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.

The consequences have cascaded globally. Gulf producers, unable to export with storage tanks filling up, have been forced to cut total oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day. Benchmark crude oil prices surged – Brent futures traded within a whisker of $120 per barrel before settling around $101–103 currently. War-risk surcharges on shipping have spiked. Lloyd’s List reported carriers rushing to impose new premiums as the crisis deepened. Airlines across the world – from Qantas to IndiGo – announced fare hikes citing fuel and insurance cost spirals.

The Leadership Decapitation Strategy

On 17 March, Israel confirmed the killing of Ali Larijani, head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council – one of the most powerful decision-makers in Tehran. The head of Basij, Iran’s feared paramilitary force, was also eliminated. Earlier, Mojtaba Khamenei was elected on 8 March to replace his father as Supreme Leader, with the IRGC and Iran’s top leaders pledging allegiance. Trump called the new supreme leader a “lightweight” and threatened he would not last without US approval.

The rate of Iranian ballistic missile launches has declined since early March, with analysts pointing to depletion of launcher stores and a strategy of rationing for a longer war. However, the IRGC’s spokesperson told Iranian state media on 16 March that most of their weapons cache remains intact and that they have not yet fired missiles produced after the June 2025 war with Israel. This suggests Iran is conserving its more advanced stockpile for a prolonged campaign rather than exhausting it in the opening weeks.

India’s Exposure and Response

For India, the stakes are existential on the energy front. Nearly 45 per cent of India’s crude imports transited Hormuz before this crisis. Petroleum Minister Hardeep Singh Puri told Parliament that non-Hormuz sourcing has now risen to approximately 70 per cent of crude imports, up from 55 per cent pre-conflict, with India now sourcing crude from 40 countries against 27 in 2006–07. India holds roughly 30 days of crude reserves – 15 days in strategic reserves underground and another 15 days across refinery storage.

While there is no immediate supply crisis, any prolongation beyond four to six weeks would test these buffers severely. The rupee has already weakened to ₹92.44 per dollar, adding further pressure on India’s import bill. The IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva warned on 9 March at a symposium hosted by Japan’s Ministry of Finance that a prolonged conflict poses a serious inflationary risk to the global economy.

Where Does This End?

The conflict’s trajectory hinges on three variables. First, Iran’s military endurance – the country is financially fragile after years of sanctions, recent protests, and damage from the June 2025 war. It is unlikely to sustain high-intensity operations beyond four to six weeks. Second, the Strait of Hormuz – the US dropped 5,000-pound guided bombs on Iranian missile sites along the Hormuz coast on 17 March, signalling an intent to force the waterway open. Third, diplomacy – Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi dismissed Trump’s claim that Tehran wants truce talks, stating on 16 March that Iran has never asked for a ceasefire or negotiation. Yet Trump continues to signal both escalation and openness to talks, creating a volatile and unpredictable endgame.

The conflict has already reset the geopolitical architecture of the Middle East. Whether it ends in weeks or months, the economic aftershocks – on energy prices, global inflation, supply chains, and regional stability – will persist well into 2027.

Disclaimer:
This blog is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Views expressed are based on publicly available information and market understanding at the time of writing and are subject to change. Readers should consult their financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Investments in markets are subject to risk.